“In crisis management, be quick with the facts and slow with the blame”. Leonard Saffir
Our governors have stepped up to provide leadership during our COVID-19 crisis. We all want to get back to “normal” but we also want to safely return to work. Our governors and public health officials agree that we need to increase testing and utilize contact tracing. Because the supply chain has been a bottleneck, governors are now looking to the federal government to increase testing supplies. We weren’t prepared for the first round in our fight with this virus – we better get ready for the second round.
COVID-19 Trends
Our COVID crisis is threatening our health and our economy. Nearly three quarters of Americans fear the worst is still to come. 66% of Americans are concerned that restrictions on public activity will be lifted too quickly, compared with 32% that feel they will not be lifted quickly enough. I have interviewed physicians who are very worried about catching the virus and passing it on to their families, particularly to those who are immuno-suppressed.
Since the beginning of March, we have dramatically increased testing for COVID-19. On March 6th, our President said, “Anybody that wants a test can get a test”. However, on that day, we had only completed an estimated 2,000 tests. By the end of March, we had completed 1 million tests and 4 million tests by April 20th. (Source: COVID Tracking Project) Although last week we averaged 150,000 tests per day, our governors and public health experts are recommending 2-3 times that.
Confirmed COVID-19 cases increased from 44,000 to 793,000, during the four weeks ending April 20th. This chart compares new cases each week in New York with the rest of the country. Prior to this 4-week period, New York accounted for nearly 50% of all cases. We have seen a slight reduction of new cases in New York, which now accounts for one-third of total confirmed cases. (Source: Worldometer)
Silent Spread
Due to silent spread and limited testing, the actual number of COVID-19 cases may be several times higher than reported. During the early 1900s, Typhoid Mary silently spread the disease as she went from one employer to another. She transmitted the disease to others while she did not show any symptoms of the illness.
We are now studying the silent transmission of COVID-19. Of the 634 people on the Diamond Princess who tested positive for the virus, 52% had no symptoms and 18% never developed symptoms. Of the 3,300 residents in Vo, Italy who were tested twice, 50-75% of people found to be infected had no symptoms when they were tested. Researchers estimate that between a third and a half of transmissions occur from people without symptoms.
Crisis Leadership
In a crisis, effective leaders focus more on the facts and less on blame. In my previous article, I wrote about how we lost the month of February to ramp up testing and prevent the virus spread. Our governors recognized they needed to step up and take responsibility for providing needed hospital resources and diagnostic testing.
Four governors have stood out in dealing with coronavirus for California, Ohio, New York, and Maryland. These governors have become more vocal about the steps we need to take in order to safely open our country again. The Maryland governor even purchased 500,000 test kits through his connections in South Korea. The governors agree that they need federal help with the supply chain for increased testing.
I am most impressed with the leadership of Governor Cuomo in New York. He has confronted the “brutal facts” with so many COVID-19 cases and deaths in his state. His news conferences have been informative and easy to understand. He conveys his responsibility and passion for significantly increasing testing in his state. His staff surveyed the top 50 labs and found that their greatest challenge was to get the reagents they needed. That’s why he is asking the federal government to help address the testing supply chain.
Summary
We all want to get back to “normal”, while protecting the safety of all Americans, particularly healthcare workers. Governors generally agree that we need much more testing and contact tracing. However, we can’t get enough supplies to expand testing as needed. Although we are seeing a reduction in new cases, we have not eliminated this virus. We weren’t prepared for our first round in our fight and we better be prepared for the second round.
Bruce Korus is the Founder of Korus Health Innovation. Expanded primary care teams will use telehealth to shift services from hospitals & clinics to homes & smart phones. Send your comments to bruce@korushealthinno.com