“The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present….as our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew”. Abraham Lincoln
April 2020 is a key month in our fight against COVID-19. We are bracing for peak demand of COVID-19 patients to hit most hospitals during April. This week the Prime Minister of Great Britain entered the ICU in his fight against the virus. On a positive note, we are beginning to see new cases leveling off. But our lives will never be the same.
While sheltering in place, I am not seeing my grandchildren nor am I going to the grocery store. This is my second article about how the crisis is impacting Americans, particularly healthcare workers.
Healthcare Crisis
Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that coronavirus is, “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu”. The White House has predicted 100 – 240,000 deaths due to COVID-19. That is greater than the lives lost during 9/11, the Vietnam War, and the Korean War – combined.
Peak demand of COVID-19 patients will hit hospitals on April 15th, according to IHME. By June 1st, we should see a significant reduction in hospital utilization, but an estimated 82,000 people will have died. As with the flu, this virus could come back in the Fall.
Confirmed COVID-19 cases increased from 44,000 to 367,000, during the 2 weeks ending on April 6th. New York State has been hard hit, now accounting for 36% of our total cases. Recently, the number of new cases may be leveling off. Our actual number of cases is significantly higher than has been reported, due to reporting delays and limited testing.
Our Lost Month
We lost the month of February to ramp up testing and prevent the virus spread. At the beginning of an epidemic, the best weapon is testing to determine who has the virus. We could have isolated infected people and prevented further spread. We missed the opportunity to test people with symptoms and get ahead of this crisis.
On January 20th, Washington found the first COVID-19 case in the US. That same day South Korea discovered their first case of the virus. But how we handled testing was very different. South Korea began their testing program within two weeks. Some 360,000 tests later, they have more or less won the coronavirus war.
Why did it take so long to get our testing program going? The CDC spent several weeks developing a viable test after the initial test had failed. It wasn’t until February 29th that the CDC allowed hospitals and private labs to develop their own testing.
On March 6th, our President said, “Anybody that wants a test could get a test”. However, on that same day, we had only completed an estimated 2,000 tests. The White House promised that 1 million tests would be available by the end of that week. But it wasn’t until the end of March that we performed 1 million tests.
We still have limited testing with priority for patients who have been hospitalized. Even health care workers exposed to a COVID-19 patient may have difficulty getting tested.
Getting Out of This Crisis
Through his work with the Gates Foundation, Bill Gates has spoken with experts and leaders in Washington and around the country. He has recommended how to make up for lost time on COVID-19. First, we need a consistent approach to shutting down. In other words, Americans should stay at home. Today, this is our only real weapon to slow its spread.
Second, the federal government needs to step up testing. We need more efficient and timely testing, as provided by the Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network. We should prioritize testing for healthcare workers and the seriously ill. Our federal government should also provide the masks and ventilators needed by our health system. Forcing 50 governors to compete for lifesaving equipment only makes matters worse.
Finally, we need a data-based approach to developing treatments and a vaccine. To bring the disease to an end, we’ll need a safe and effective vaccine. If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months – about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed.
Summary
Let’s hope that May will bring an end to our initial wave of COVID-19. Do whatever you can to support our healthcare workers – Stay at Home. But we need to prepare for a return in the Fall.
Bruce Korus is the Founder of Korus Health Innovation. Expanded primary care teams will use telehealth to shift services from hospitals & clinics to homes & smart phones. Send your comments to bruce@korushealthinno.com